Each component is standardized (z-scored) over its own available history, so higher means more stress. Components layer in when their data begins. Yield curve leads, but less than it once did. Measured against the next 24 months of S&P drawdown, its correlation was +0.37 across 1990–2005 and +0.08 across 2006–2026. Credit is the better long-lead measure now (+0.30). Realized vol, implied VIX, EM and equity drawdown all peak at 6–12 months and are effectively coincident. Hover to inspect any month; click to pin. Data is live from market feeds, cached and refreshed periodically.

What this is not: a return forecast. Tested point-in-time over 433 months, the composite’s correlation with the next 12 months of S&P returns is +0.05, and the sign of that relationship flips between 1990–2005 and 2006–2026. Read it as a gauge of how much strain the system is carrying right now, not a direction call.