The news, priced by people betting real money
How to read this
What do these numbers mean?
Each number is the price of a contract that pays out if something happens. A price of 20 cents means traders, as a group, put the chance at about 20%. When news breaks, they buy or sell and the odds move, often within minutes.
Are the odds right?
Often, not always. Prediction markets have a decent track record because people lose money when they are wrong, but they can swing on rumours and get big events wrong. A 20% chance still happens one time in five. Treat the odds as one honest signal next to the headlines, not a guarantee.
Why do some markets show "by" dates?
Some questions are asked for several deadlines, like "ceasefire holds through Oct 31" and "through Nov 30". The big number is the nearest deadline that is still in play; the rows below show the later ones.
Why are the earnings odds labelled thin?
Only a few thousand dollars is usually bet on each company's earnings, so one trader can move the number a long way. Read them against the base rate: over the past 10 years about 76% of S&P 500 companies have beaten their earnings estimates (FactSet).
Where do the odds come from?
Polymarket's public market data, refreshed every few minutes. We show the busiest markets on news that moves money: at least $250,000 traded, and we leave out sport and celebrity bets. Each card links to its market on Polymarket.
Can I bet here?
No. Tradetus does not offer betting or trading and earns nothing from these markets. This page is for information only and is not financial advice.
What is saved about me?
The markets you follow and the odds from your last visit stay in this browser so we can show what changed. Nothing is sent to Tradetus.